Brexit: Ten Years On, What Is the Verdict for the United Kingdom?

Ten years after the referendum of 23 June 2016, Brexit continues to occupy a central place in British society.

Held at the initiative of David Cameron's government, the referendum resulted in 51.9% of voters supporting the United Kingdom's departure from the European Union, while 48.1% voted to remain. The United Kingdom officially left the European Union on 31 January 2020, before the end of the transition period, which had been set to expire on 31 December 2020.

Brexit—a contraction of the words Britain and exit—took place against a backdrop of rising populist and Eurosceptic movements. Figures such as Nigel Farage, then leader of the far-right UK Independence Party (UKIP), played a major role in placing immigration, national sovereignty and criticism of the European institutions at the centre of public debate. Their influence also led the Conservative Party to adopt an increasingly hard-line position on Europe, ultimately culminating in the referendum.

The slogan "Take Back Control" quickly became the rallying cry of the Leave campaign. Brexit supporters promised to restore the United Kingdom's control over its borders, immigration, laws and trade policy. They also argued that the savings generated by ending the UK's contributions to the European Union budget would allow greater investment in public services, particularly the National Health Service (NHS).

Ten years later, what conclusions can be drawn from these commitments? From an institutional perspective, one of the main promises has indeed been fulfilled. The United Kingdom has regained legislative sovereignty and is no longer subject to European Union law.

The British government is now free to negotiate its own trade agreements and to determine its own immigration policy.

Since 2021, several free trade agreements have been concluded with a range of international partners. Some have been negotiated on terms broadly comparable to those enjoyed by the European Union (and therefore by the UK before Brexit), while others have been agreed on less favourable terms.

The economic effects of Brexit appear even more mixed. Leaving the Single Market and the Customs Union led to the introduction of new administrative procedures and customs checks for trade with the European Union. As a result, many British businesses have had to adapt their operations to these new, burdensome and costly requirements. Although new trade agreements have been signed, the European Union remains the United Kingdom's largest trading partner, and the increased cost of trading with the EU has had a direct impact on the cost of living in the UK.

Immigration, another key issue during the referendum campaign, continues to fuel debate. While the end of free movement has led to a reduction in the number of arrivals from EU member states, immigration from countries outside the European Union has increased significantly. As a result, the objective of reducing overall immigration—widely promoted during the 2016 campaign—remains far from being achieved and continues to generate political controversy and public debate.

A similar conclusion can be drawn regarding the National Health Service (NHS). Brexit supporters claimed that the savings generated would provide additional funding for the healthcare system. Everyone remembers the £350 million a week that Boris Johnson famously promised for the NHS on the side of his red campaign bus during the Brexit campaign. Ten years later, the NHS has, of course, never received this funding and continues to face chronic staff shortages, budgetary pressures and long waiting times.

Beyond the economic and social consequences, Brexit has also profoundly reshaped British politics. The negotiations with the European Union led to several changes of government and a significant realignment of the political landscape. Following UKIP's central role in the Brexit campaign, Reform UK—also led by Nigel Farage—has emerged as a major force in British politics by continuing to focus its message on immigration, national sovereignty, and criticism of the political elite and the "establishment".

In a world facing growing uncertainty, increasing instability and significant geopolitical change, the United Kingdom finds itself in a weaker position in foreign policy following Brexit, owing in part to its greater isolation, despite its status as a nuclear power and its bilateral cooperation agreements. This has led to renewed efforts to strengthen cooperation and build closer ties with the European Union.

From the French perspective, closer relations with the United Kingdom are being encouraged. The French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs, Jean-Noël Barrot, recently stated that France would be prepared to support the United Kingdom's return to the European Union should London decide to apply for membership. He nevertheless emphasised that any such accession would entail the same rights and obligations as those applying to every other Member State.

Ten years after the referendum, Brexit therefore remains a subject of debate and controversy both within British society and across the European Union. While some promises, such as the restoration of legislative sovereignty, have been delivered, others—notably those relating to immigration, economic growth and NHS funding—continue to generate discussion and political debate. Brexit therefore remains a defining moment in modern British history, the political, economic and social consequences of which continue to shape relations between the United Kingdom and the European Union.